Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Extraordinary Twitter Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

For this last post, I've decided to go out with a bang and a reference to one of my favorite books, by Charles Mackay. Latest in date, Twitter (as in, Twitter will save the world).

A new contender, Karim Gargum, a self-proclaimed online marketing expert, proclaimed that Twitter will menace google, because people will from now on search for content on Twitter rather than google.

His presentation is below.



If you clicked on the hyperlink on the genius' name, you noticed it's a broken link. Yes, the visionary can't even get a URL right.

So let me join with David Letterman (check Billy's blog if you haven't seen the video yet), and conclude: THIS IS FUCKING STUPID PEOPLE!! (also note the use of the fleeting expletive - the FCC has jurisdiction over broadcast, not the internet).

With that, I bid you farewell.

Is my local paper going down?


A month ago, I reported that my El Segundo Herald was advertising a "stimulus package": any add ran in any of their three South Bay papers would for free in the other two papers.

This week, the Herald reports going online. What's going on here? I do not see a point for a free local paper to go online, unless they upload special content that is not in the print version, but it does not seem to be the case here.

There are reasons why pay print papers would go online, amongst the the following:

- offer additional content
- offer free content in order to compete in a free world, where people do not want to pay for the paper anymore.

But the Herald is free already! And it's already widely distributed. I get it on my doorstep. I get it at the coffee shop. I get it at the pizza place. And this is where I read it, too. My need are already fulfilled, and I will not go online to read it.

So why go online? ... Oh wait ... is my local paper secretly planning on going paperless soon ?!

Any thoughts?

Monday, May 4, 2009

Why Twitter is useless, as far as journalism is concerned

I understand that my feelings for Twitter put me in the minority in the class. I argue that Twitter is a useless piece of junk, tailored for hipsters / virtual social networking fiends / blind lovers of mark zuckerberg. I further argue that Twitter, and any site of the sort, will have no positive impact / have no future, as far as quality online journalism is concerned.

While a lot of people will call me heretic, numbers have emerged that indicate that I may be right after all. According to Marketing Charts, only 41.7% of Twitter users DISagree with the fact that "you should follow people who follow YOU". Meaning that 58.3% of users do not disagree with that statement. Also, 58.1% of users do not disagree with the statement "people you follow should follow you back."

Now people, if this is not the proof that Twitter, like facebook, is an ego-boosting medium with no educational value, I don't know what is. "People should follow me because I follow them"?! And this community is supposed to be the future of journalism?

The Oracle on the future of newspapers

In case you missed it.

Mr. Buffett on Newspapers

Mr. Buffett has long held himself out as a newspaper man. As a child, one of his first jobs was delivering newspapers. An Omaha newspaper Berkshire owned, Sun Newspapers, won a Pulitzer Prize in 1973 based in part on a tip Mr. Buffett provided. One of Berkshire's biggest investments in the 1970s was the Buffalo News, which it still owns.


But his view on the future of the newspaper industry is dismal. "For most newspapers in the United States, we would not buy them at any price," he said. "They have the possibility of going to just unending losses."

As long as newspapers were essential to readers, they were essential to advertisers, he said. But news is now available in many other venues, he said.

Berkshire has a substantial investment in Washington Post Co. He said the company has a solid cable business, a good reason to hold on to it, but its newspaper business is in trouble.

Mr. Munger called newspapers' woes "a national tragedy....These monopoly daily newspapers have been an important sinew to our civilization, they kept government more honest than they would otherwise be."

A Washington Post Co. representative couldn't be reached for comment

Saturday, April 25, 2009

add bugets move online (continued)

The European Interactive Advertising Association reports that 70% of advertisers plan on increasing their internet advertising budget in 2009 (37% increasing a lot and 33% increasing a little). The anticipated increase in the internet add budget is estimated at 18% for 2009, 21% in 2010, and 15% in 2011.

According to the report, 46% of advertisers think that the budget comes from magazines, 37% think it comes from TV, and 32% think it comes from newspaper adds.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Good news for news: the online add market is growing fast

Good news for news: the online add market is growing fast. At least in India. The World Advertising Research Center predicts the Indian ad market will post an 8% uplift in revenues over the course of the year. And according to an executive at the Starcom MediaVest Group, the internet adspend will grow to take 10% of many brand owners' total advertising expenditure by the end of next year.

Will we see the same trend in Western countries? I’m willing to bet on it, even though DTV, with its capacity to better target more refined classes of users, will be a strong competitor.

The conclusion to this, in my opinion, is that online news organizations need to spend resources on having an effective, tech-savy add-selling department (i.e. unlike what’s happening with the European papers, see post below on geolocalization)

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Herald Publications in trouble, offers "stimulus package"




Herald Publications, which publishes my city's weekly free paper, the El Segundo Herald, is in trouble. In their own words, "Herald Publications recognizes that many families and business, including us, are struggling."

As a result, they are offering a stimulus package: any add ran in any of their three South Bay papers will be ran for free in the other two papers.

I'm a bit puzzled by the whole thing, because I would have thought that micro-local papers such as the El Segundo Herald (El Segundo = 16,000 residents) would have been shielded from the add crisis. When you think about it, craigslist isn't that local, as far as really big cities, especially a suburban city such as LA, are concerned. If I want a cheap couch, I'm more likely to find one in the El Segundo Herald classified section than I am to find it on craigslist (on craigslist, I will most certainly find one in Downtown LA, one in Santa Monica, one in Los Feliz, etc, but it will take me much sorting time to find one in El Segundo).

But I guess my instinct is wrong. I mean, how bad is it that a paper has to offer triple the circulation for the price of one in order to lure advertisers?...

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Capitalizing on geolocalization techniques

A study by the Audit Bureau of Circulations indicates that online British-newspaper readership went up 70% in 2008. Which should be great news for those sites, if they can draw advertising.

The interesting thing is, only 36% of readers actually live in the UK. 70% of the Daily Mail’s 19.7 visitors live outside of the UK. The same goes for about 2/3 of the Guardian’s 22.8 million online readers and for the Telegraph’s 21.1 million visitors.

What does that mean for advertisers? My experience with reading French newspapers online is that most of the ads advertise goods or services I would get in France, which doesn’t do me any good. Only very few ads use IP geolocalization techniques to feed me, say, banner adds telling me how to get a France 24 satellite feed in Los Angeles.

Which means that whoever is in charge of those ads (the paper, the online ad agencies?) needs to get a grip and start using IP geolocalization. The first online paper to do it effectively might well see its ad revenues surge.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

The Guardian on convergence



The Guardian is making a strong move towards convergence by launching an application programing interface



The Open Platform will allow developers to integrate Guardian content into their own applications. The pricing model will be twofold:

- 1) free content provided by the Guardian - in exchange, the developer needs to let the Guardian push its ads into the application; or

- 2) the Guardian licenses the content for a fee, if the developer wants an add-free application

"There's no such thing as a newspaper industry. There's a news industry"

Rick Martinez has an interesting slideshow out



One thing is particularly interesting in my opinion, it is the statement that "There's no such thing as a newspaper industry. There's a news industry." I like it because it is forward looking and helps us refocus on what matters. It echoes a very clear statement made in the French White Paper on the future of the press. The White paper states that what matters is the news, not the paper, and recommends actively seeking to push content through new conduits (e.g. your hand held, internet connected device). I think keeping this point in mind will help us look in the right direction.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Like a kid in a candy store

I found out that Slate just opened a French site at slate.fr, and I’ve been like a kid in a candy store. The op-ed articles bring fresh perspectives and address little-talked about issues of the day. They’ve reminded me of why I used to buy Le Figaro, and why I don’t anymore.

More importantly, the attitude of the editors has been very refreshing. In the first couple weeks of existence, the editors clearly insisted on wanting to get letters to the editor and feedback from readers. And the amazing thing is, they actually responded to feedback and discussed future directions with readers. This is where, it seems to me the traditional press is lagging. See, I stopped reading Le Monde and severely decreasing consumption of Le Figaro because of the inaccuracies in the articles. On numerous occasions, I wrote both to the journalists and the ombudsman in order to point out inaccuracies and suggest corrections (e.g, no, the New York Red Sox did not just win the Super Hockey Bowl – and this is barely an exaggeration). But the journalists and the ombudsman never replied, neither did they ever correct the articles in the online version of the paper, which would have been so easy to do.

This is where there may be a generational and cultural gap between a declining newspaper industry and a growing net industry. We are told that the newspapers are not read by youth anymore, because there is no adequacy between what they youth wants and what the newspapers produce. Newspapers may need to immerse themselves in net culture in order to answer new needs of their readers. Maybe it’s not enough to upload the paper online to really be “online.” It’s useless to have an electronic feedback system, if the journalists and the editors and the ombudsmen are autistic. Newspapers have a great opportunity to re-invent themselves and become even better. But it seems to me they also need to accept the fact that old culture put online does not create adequacy. The world is changing, so should the papers.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

It’s not the technology, it’s what you do with it

I loved Daysha’s post RE: reading the paper on a computer, circa 1981. It just so happens that the French rolled a similar system into production in the early 80s, called the Minitel. The stuff was so great, it reached an incredibly high penetration rate in France, with about 9 million terminals for 55 million inhabitants by 1992. Here, you can see a video of a news report on the launch of system, circa 1982 (enjoy the clothing and hair style). Here's another video, likely from the early nineties, where broadcast television M6 suggest you connect to their Minitel site to decide which video clip will be played during the morning show.

Newpapers and other content providers loved the network because they made so much money out of it. See, to connect to the Minitel network, you had to dial up a centralized server, ran by the government. The government (through the Post and Telecommunications Ministry), would bill you by the minute. There was a price scale, but the most expensive services cost about 1 dollar a minute. We’re talking early-eighties dollars, too. The invoice would show up as part as your phone bill. The, the gov would rebate a large part of the fee to the content provider. Very effective pricing model. I believe the most successful of the news services where those where timing is everything, e.g. financial information.

The bottom line, with the right pricing model, information distribution over computer networks made the news industry significant money. So why is the Internet different, and why is the Internet blamed by newspapers? Could it be that the issue is not with the network, but with the culture that emerged from the community of network users? Tim mentioned hating Craig Newmark. That’s a step in the good direction - the direction of finding the “culprit”, that is. The Internet could revolve around a profit model. In fact, it does, in a lot of ways. I understand a number of journalists would prefer living in AOL’s gated community. But you should blame John Perry Barlow, Craig Newmark, et al, for the situation you find unpleasant. Not the network.

One apple, one glass of wine, and one newspaper a day keep the doctor away

One apple a day keeps the doctor away, says the well-known proverb. And what parent hasn’t repeated it, day in and day out to his kids, in the hope that they would get the point. “Drill, baby, drill,” to quote ever-entertaining Gov Palin. Well, Amber (COMM 599 Amber) will probably agree that what holds true for apples may also hold true for newspapers. Train kids to read the paper early, they might well keep the habit once grown up. At least that France’s strategy.

As someone mentioned last week (not sure whether I should quote David or Michael Schudson on this), French President Sarkozy recently presented a series of measures he wants to pass in order to support a fledgling industry. While most measures are fiscal aids, one sticks out for it is reminiscent of the apples proverb: each kid, during the year where she’s 18, should get a free subscription to a daily paper. The hope, of course, is that said kid would get hooked and then get her own subscription upon turning 19.

While most discussions about the future of papers in the digital age revolve around developing viable online business models for news, this measure revolves around sustaining the print paper itself – which is a pretty good idea given new technologies such as radio, the phonograph, and TV, only seem to create a shift in the economic models of the previous industries instead of plain destroying them.
Back to the measure: it would be financed half by the paper picked by the 18-year old, and half by the government. This technique actually isn’t new in France. When I was in high school, we were able to get heavily discounted subscriptions to magazines, courtesy of the magazine industry and of the gov.

Another thing I remember: when I was in college in Paris, daily Le Figaro (which was still then an outstanding paper) would drop piles of its financial edition at the school, so students could get their free copy and get hooked. I did in fact get hooked. Is this something that would be feasible in the US? How about the LA Times starts dumping a bunch of free copies for Trojans and baby bruins to read? I have no idea what the cost of this would be, or what the return would be. But this is something worth looking into it.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Rate my journalist (.com)

I suggested last week that if the Internet means the decline of print journalism, the real question, as far as democracy is concerned, is whether democratic needs will be better served with a new breed of journalism, an Internet-based one, than it was served when news was distributed in print. In other words, if a change in the means of production and in the means of distribution – driven by the Internet - leads to a better-informed citizenry, then the decline of print journalism will not at all be an issue – from the democratic standpoint. I then pointed out that this was a big IF, one that needed to be tested. So let me now toy with the question with a quick case study.

I’m a big sports fan, bordering somewhere between obsessive and compulsive. I’ve held season tickets for two teams, the Paris Saint Germain Football Club (Paris, France), and the California Golden Bears (Berkeley, California). As far as Cal is concerned, I closely follow football and rugby, and used to track basketball, ice hockey and lacrosse as well. Needless to say, watching a game, live or on TV, does not fulfill my obsession, and the question of access to beat reporting is a key one.

Interestingly enough, my means of information for the Paris Saint Germain on one hand, and for the Golden Bears and the AS Cannes on the other, are completely different. The French paper Le Parisien (95 euro cents daily) features daily beat reporting on the team. The reporting takes as many as two pages on big days, and can be limited to a tiny box listing players who did not attend last practice because of injury, as well as the time and location of the next practice, on uneventful days. I buy the paper on a daily basis when I’m in Paris, solely for the soccer beat (I actually very much enjoy the rest of the paper as well, as it offers excellent local and political beat as well, but I would pay to get the soccer beat by itself). As far as the Golden Bears are concerned, however, I almost only rely on two fan boards, formerly known as cyberbears.org, but now split into an “official” board ran by ESPN and an alternate board hosted by the Scout network.

Why such a difference in news consumption patterns for both teams? One could think it’s a question of access to the print press: when in Paris, I buy the journal because I can; when in LA, I have to rely on the Internet to follow the Golden Bears, since the SF Chronicle and the Contra Costa Times are harder to come by. Except that I do read “Le Parisien” online almost every day when I’m in LA, rather than the Paris fan boards, and I could read the Chronicle online to follow Cal sports – but I don’t. In fact, I used to buy the Chronicle every day when I lived in the Bay, but never for the Cal sports reporting.

The actual reason that explains the differences in my consumption patterns has to do with quality. The Paris beat reporter is outstanding, whereas the fan boards are full of violent lunatics and Sunday coaches. The Cal boards are full of Sunday coaches as well, but they also feature a small number of retired alumni who have nothing better to do than to attend practice every chance they get and to attend all events sponsored by the athletic department. Some of those alumni have excellent writing talent as well, and their posts are both well informed and insightful. Overtime, they establish themselves, quality-wise, just like a seller would establish itself on EBay, except more informally. They become credible sources, trustworthy citizen journalists.

Will I be short-changed if the SF Chronicle goes under? No, because the citizen journalists, in this case, fulfill the role of the media in a democracy better than the print media does: the SF Chronicle is simply no insightful on Cal sports – whereas the Cal boards reporters are, to the point that some of them have become quasi-official writers on the Scout network site: they occasionally get a special order for a story that subsequently gets posted on the Scout main page.

The issue then is to be able to identify the trustworthy sources amongst the citizen-journalists. It is very feasible, as the Cal Bears example shows. But one problem is that this process requires time, whereas, the old guard will say, the print journalists are inherently trustworthy. I beg to take the later statement with a grain of salt. Experience shows that editing processes are very capable of failure. I can think of multiple instances where the mainstream – supposedly reputable media has falsified stories. And misstatements of facts occur every day. We’re told that too much information kills information. We’re told that bloggers and board posters are untrustworthy. But is it so, or has the print media just missed the boat? Could it be that those comments are no more than self-preservation moves?

So why not try this: an EBay-like rating system for bloggers, board posters, and “legitimate” journalists. Not rate-my-professor anymore. Rate my journalist.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Commingling of Arguments

We’ve heard a lot in class about the sadness of seeing familiar print papers disappear. While I can certainly agree with that, I have the feeling there’s a confusion – conscious or not, of two arguments: an economic argument on one hand, and a democratic argument on the other. Those should not be mixed.

Why should we care about the doom of print papers? One footnote to start: I don’t believe in the announced doom of print journalism. At times of history, there have been crunches in certain industries, but it doesn’t mean those industries have necessarily disappeared. While there has been a crunch in the print industry – as there has been in many industries affected by the internet – calling for the doom of it is premature. So let’s call it a decline. This decline is usually presented as something bad. In fact, it is usually presented as something dramatic. And this assessment is usually presented as self-evident. Here, I’ll argue that we should challenge the foundations of such reasoning. So I’ll put it bluntly: why should we care about the decline of the print news industry?

Most arguments I’ve heard in class and elsewhere revolve around two considerations, one economic, and one which I would call a backward-looking argument. First, people in the industry are scared because of the loss of jobs. This is a legitimate concern. Losing one’s job can be dramatic. The second type of argument I hear goes along the lines of “this is sad, I grew up with this paper,” or “this is sad, this paper was the heart and soul of this city.” Again this is an understandable argument. So from the economic standpoint, and from the backward-looking standpoint, the decline in print journalism is a bad thing.

However, those arguments should have no bearing on a more fundamental question: which impact will the Internet have on democracy? If the Internet means the decline of print journalism, the real question, as far as democracy is concerned, is whether democratic needs will be better served with a new breed of journalism, an Internet-based one, than it was served when news was distributed in print. In other words, if a change in the means of production and in the means of distribution – driven by the Internet - leads to a better-informed citizenry, then the decline of print journalism will not at all be an issue – from the democratic standpoint. It could even be a blessing.

Clearly this is a big if, and one that must be tested. But what must be done first is to separate the economic argument and the backward-looking argument from the democratic one. Jobs do not equal democracy. It is not at all self-evident that the decline of print journalism will mean that democracy is short changed. When assessing that last issue, economy should not be taken into consideration.

PS: One counter argument will be that economic prosperity is a pre-requisite for democracy. I will already address that one by suggesting that evidence suggests otherwise. For example, in the 2008 Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index, France, the fifth richest country in the world, ranks 35th, 14 places behind Jamaica (21st), and right behind Ghana and Mali (tied at 31st), all much poorer countries than France is.